Dems nomination process, EV adoption, small islands and sea level rise, Neanderthal genome, weight-loss drugs, peak oil,
July 22, 2024 - The Nett Report
Every other week, the award-winning Nett Report provides readers with thoughtful perspectives helpful to navigating life in a changing world. Past issues.
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Political Divide
“The chattering class has little or no influence on the preferences of average voters.” - Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich, referring to the pundits on cable TV.
“In truth, the Democratic Party is little more than a national fundraising machine, as is the GOP. I’m not faulting Biden for expressing his frustration with the party’s big-money elite. He’s simply stating the truth. America’s donor class has become extraordinarily powerful, in both parties.” - Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich.
“Hang on to your hat. Hang on to your hope. And wind the clock, for tomorrow is another day.” - Writer E. B. White in a letter to a man who said he had lost faith in humanity.
A rhetorical question from Nettleton Strategies. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, along with others in both parties, have talked about uniting their parties. When is somebody going to start talking about uniting the people, regardless of party?
Democratic candidate nomination process revealed
With President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, a July 21, 2024, the graphic belows from The Washington Post explains the process for nominating a replacement candidate. Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-W.Va.) is considering re-registering as a Democrat to throw his hat in the ring, and self-help author Marianne Williamson is also considering a run for the nomination.
Future of Work / The Economy
“I think there's an unbelievable misunderstanding of what the technology [AI] can do today. The problems that it can solve aren't big problems. There is no cognitive reasoning in this.” - Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs' Head of Global Equity Research
Peak oil demand is still a decade away, or is it?
A June 17, 2024, report by Goldman Sachs says peak oil is still a decade away, reaching its zenith in 2035. The reason: “Lackluster electric vehicle sales and rising incomes around the globe are increasing the appetite for energy supplies that will be met primarily with more fossil fuels.” BP sees it differently. According to a July 10, 2024, article in The Guardian, “BP has predicted that the world’s demand for oil will peak next year, bringing an end to rising global carbon emissions by the mid-2020s.” BP attributes the outlook to the “rapid expansion of wind and solar power as technology costs continue to fall.”
Investors continue to buy homes, competing with individuals
In the first quarter of 2024, “14.8.% of sold homes were purchased by investors, the highest share on record,” according to Realtor.com, as reported by Fortune in a July 11, 2024, article. These purchases compete with individual home buyers who are already challenged by both higher home prices and higher interest rates. Some additional factoids:
Investors are still buying more homes than they sell.
Between the summers of 2021 and 2022, investors increased their holdings by more than 20,000 properties a month.
In March of this year, investors only bought 8,000 more homes than they sold.
Altogether, between March 2020 and March 2024, investors bought roughly 690,000 more properties than they sold. These homes contribute to rental inventory, but further limit already scarce for-sale inventory.
Climate Change
Utility-scale vs rooftop solar – which is best?
Anthropocene Magazine posted a thoughtful article on July 7, 2024, analyzing the pros and cons of both utility-scale solar and rooftop solar. The writer asked the question: “Should society be prioritizing industrial-scale solar projects or a multitude of small rooftop systems?” Some factoids:
Utility systems are getting cheaper, faster than home set-ups.
A high uptake of domestic solar panels can leave the grid more susceptible to failure. To make a distributed grid more resilient will require expensive upgrades.
Only 3% of domestic solar systems are found on renter-occupied homes.
Black-majority census tracts installed around 70% less rooftop PV than non-majority tracts.
The bottom 50% of US tax filers received only 10% of all renewable energy credits, while the top 5% received approximately 20% of all credits available.
People who can afford a private backup will pay for that, and, as a result, the impetus to strengthen the common system declines.
Rooftop produces as little as half the emissions of the bigger systems for every watt generated because of utility solar’s infrastructure costs and transmission losses.
Those living near the largest solar arrays (100 megawatts or more) were 12 times more likely to express negative attitudes than positive ones.
If PV panels were installed on every suitable US rooftop, it would only account for 40% of the nation’s energy needs.
1% of US farmland could provide up to 20% of the country’s electricity,
Share of electric car sales varies globally and in US states
Press coverage lately has often focused on the lack of penetration of electric vehicles into the overall car market. In the July 11, 2024, issue of Sustainability by the Numbers, author Hannah Ritchie analyzes both the international and U.S. electric vehicle adoption rate as measured by new car sales. As you can see from the above bar graph, Norway and Sweden are far ahead of the field with new EV sales at 93% and 60% respectively. The U.S. is far down the list at 10%. When Ritchie looked at the overall adoption of EVs by U.S. states, defined as cars on the road, California leads the way with 3.5%.
Small islands aren’t all disappearing, some are growing
A lengthy New York Times article on June 26, 2024, reports on the work of researchers who analyzed islands, comparing current satellite images with aerial photos from the middle of the 20th century. Despite sea level rise of nearly one inch per decade, from a sample of 184 islands, “Nearly 42 percent of the islands had lost ground to erosion. But a similar proportion, 39 percent, were relatively stable in area, even as they shifted in shape. And 20 percent of islands grew, a few of them because humans had created new land.”
Health
Weight loss drugs don’t do a “metabolic reset”
According to a July 9, 2024, article in Fortune, weight loss drugs like Ozempic or Zepbound come with promises that patients can take the drug temporarily yet remain thin permanently. “Yet doctors say the so-called metabolic reset isn’t real, as people quickly regain weight once they stop taking Ozempic or Zepbound.”
The Nett Light-Side
New DNA evidence sheds light on Neanderthal DNA
New information continues to add insights to the mysteries of human evolution. A story in the July 11, 2024, edition of Science reported on the analysis of Neanderthal DNA that “allowed the researchers to date when the two groups [Neanderthals and humans] mingled, finding they made babies together remarkably early: more than 200,000 years ago, not long after Homo sapiens coalesced as a species.” The article says Neanderthals “inherited as much as 10% of their genome from modern humans” providing evidence that mating between the two species “was more common than previously thought.” Past research credits the Neanderthal genome in living humans as a “genetic legacy that boosts our immune systems, helps our blood clot, and may play a role in depression.”
Amazon tribes - the remaining uncontacted humans
It is fascinating that there are still tribes of humans that remain uncontacted by representatives from modern civilizations. A July 22, 2024, story in Reuters provides an interesting collection of images, most from airplanes but all from a distance, of members of uncontacted tribes in the Amazon.
About Carl Nettleton
Carl Nettleton is an award-winning writer, speaker, thought partner, facilitator, and subject-matter expert regarding water, climate, sustainability, the ocean, and binational U.S.-Mexico border affairs. Nettleton Strategies, the consultancy he founded in 2007, is a trusted source of analysis and advice on issues at the forefront of public policy, business, and the environment. He helps people and organizations to think strategically about their options for change. He is also the founder of OpenOceans Global, a nonprofit addressing ocean plastic in a new way.