Cost of climate change, AI replacing jobs, dog noses, negative bias in reporting, mpox fears, a civic example
April 29, 2024 - The Nett Report
Every other week, the award-winning Nett Report provides readers with thoughtful perspectives helpful to navigating life in a changing world. Past issues can be found here (recent) and here (past four years).
Future of Work / The Economy
Generative AI to automate a quarter of all jobs
According to an April 5, 2024, Goldman Sachs Intelligence Briefing, ”Generative artificial intelligence is poised to automate nearly a quarter of jobs across all industries. The effects of AI will be felt on a workforce that is already “fractionalized,” in which part-time roles supplement or replace full-time ones.” The report included the graphic above, and had some additional key points:
Around 4% of all US firms have adopted generative AI, but Goldman Sachs Research expects that figure to rise to 7% over the next six months.
The rapid clip will be led by some sectors more than others. In information services, for instance, the adoption rate is forecast to rise from 16% to 23% in that half-year period.
The effects of this shift will be seen clearly in online job marketplaces. Some types of work, such as logo design, copywriting, translation, or voice-over artistry, could be displaced by free or cheap AI tools in those categories.
It is just as likely that new types of jobs or categories will be created as a result of AI.
Generative AI can also improve the efficiency of recruiters in tasks such as enhancing job descriptions, formatting resumes, ranking candidates, and conducting initial interviews.
Exowatt to energize AI infrastructure with solar power and heat storage
A new energy startup focused on “cleaning up artificial intelligence’s massive use of electricity” has received $20 million from investors, including OpenAI’s Sam Altman. According to an April 22, 2024, story in Quartz, Exowatt is a startup “developing modules that store energy as heat and produce electricity for AI data centers.” The company’s shipping container-sized modules are “fitted with solar lenses that turn the sun’s energy into heat, which can warm up cheap material and can be stored for up to 24 hours. The modules then produce electricity by passing the stored heat through an engine. The company’s goal is to benefit from cost reductions by storing energy as heat.”
Political Divide
“Stop calling people names and say ‘I may not agree with you, but I still kind of like you.’” - John Kasich, former Ohio Republican governor on how we can get over polarization, on MSNBC, April 18, 2024
We're fickle, stupid beings with poor memories and a great gift for self-destruction
“Are you preparing for another war, Plutarch?" I ask. "Oh, not now. Now we're in a sweet period where everyone agrees that our recent horrors should never be repeated," he says. "But collective thinking is usually short-lived. We're fickle, stupid beings with poor memories and a great gift for self-destruction. Although who knows? Maybe this will be it, Katniss.” - Mockingjay, The Hunger Games, #3
Former Florida Senator Bob Graham set a civic example
James Fallows wrote about former Florida Senator Bob Graham in his April 21, 2024, Breaking the News newsletter. Graham passed away on April 15, 2024. Fallows remembers him as a “civic example to follow.” He cites three elements of Graham’s life worth remembering:
A genuine curiosity about different walks of life. Graham carried out more than 100 workdays while running for governor—and then another 300-plus while in office as governor and then U.S. Senator – spending full eight-hour working days at various professions.
A deep, practical belief in civic education. The importance of teaching Americans about their own country. In a system as complex and contradictory as ours, it’s not something people automatically learn on their own.
Prescience and courage on war and peace. When asked whether his anti-war stance during the Gulf War in 1991 might be a political liability, he said, “Information not consistent with their view of the world, you had to rattle the pipes to get it out. I felt a lot of my colleagues were voting without having all the facts in front of them.”
How reporting can create a negativity bias
“If you're always covering the aberrant thing because it's different than what's usual, then people get this really aberrant view of how society works. It helps explain why lots and lots of people think crime is going up right now when crime is going down in most places, across most categories. Journalists cover rising crime better than they cover falling crime. They cover rising inflation better than they cover falling inflation. That's that negativity bias.” - Taylor Haelterman, TriplePundit, quoting Perry Parks, Assistant Professor of Journalism at Michigan State University, on April 29, 2024
7,164 languages in the world - does that contribute to the political divide?
According to Ethnologue, 7,164 languages are spoken or signed in the world. Languages are “living and dynamic, used by communities whose lives are shaped by our rapidly changing world. This is a fragile time: Roughly 40% of languages are now endangered, often with fewer than 1,000 users remaining. Meanwhile, just 23 languages account for more than half the world’s population.” One wonders how language, which communicates our perception of the world, contributes to the political divide. According to Margaret Tavits, the co-author of the book Voicing Politics, “A stronger grasp of linguistic effects on political cognition can help us better understand how people form political attitudes and why political outcomes vary across nations and regions.”
Climate Change
Factoid: Over the last two decades, 21 coal-fired power plants have shut down across the western U.S. 37 remain. From the Los Angeles Times, based on a Sierra Club report.
Cost of U.S. weather and climate disasters since 1980 exceeds $2.690 trillion
According to NOAA’s Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters web page, the total cost of the 378 U.S. weather and climate disasters since 1980 exceeds $2.690 trillion. The map above shows the approximate location of the 28 separate U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate events in 2023.
World economy committed to 19% income reduction due to climate change
A story in PHYS.ORG on April 17, 2024, reported on a study by the “Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that assessed future impacts of changing climatic conditions on economic growth and their persistence … Based on empirical data from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years … Overall, global annual damages are estimated to be at 38 trillion dollars, with a likely range of 19–59 trillion dollars in 2050. These damages mainly result from rising temperatures but also from changes in rainfall and temperature variability. Accounting for other weather extremes such as storms or wildfires could further raise them … The countries least responsible for climate change, are predicted to suffer income loss that is 60% greater than the higher-income countries and 40% greater than higher-emission countries.” The predicted result is a 19% reduction in income until 2050 due to climate change.
Climate change causing cows to be replaced by camels
The Washington Post on April 17, 2024, reported that camels are replacing cows as a source of milk in parts of Africa. Drought exacerbated by climate change has caused the loss of 80% of cows in Kenya. An African adage says that “the cow is the first animal to die in a drought; the camel is the last.” Government programs are bringing camels to the region to replace cows.
Health
Worries about a global spread of mpox after “alarming” new outbreaks
An April 19, 2024, story in Science describes how a new variant of mpox found in a Congolese mining town has renewed worries that the virus could spread globally. Scientists from the Congo and nine other African countries met and reviewed “an alarming number of cases” and “discussed plans to improve mpox surveillance and introduce vaccination.” Scientist say “as more evidence pours in that in Africa, too, mpox is sexually transmitted, and not just among men who have sex with men, the community most affected during the recent global outbreak.”
The Nett Light-Side
“All of our dreams can come true if we have the courage to pursue them.” - Walt Disney
Dog noses are equal, but behavior and training are not
Common belief has it that some dogs, like bloodhounds, German shepherds, and Labrador retrievers have better ability to smell than other dogs. A new study, reported in the April 26, 2024, issue of Science, found that all dogs have an equal ability to smell. “It all boils down to behavior and training—and not any intrinsic scent-detection skills.” The story does say that “wolves and coyotes have superior sniffers compared with their domesticated cousins.”
Feral cats being exterminated in Australia to slow species extinctions
Feral cats are being hunted in Australia to stop them from hunting “slow-to-reproduce, snack-size mammals,” like greater bilbies and burrowing bettongs. These are “just two of the reserve’s vulnerable residents” according to an April 16, 2024, story in the New York Times. “Cats are not native to Australia, but they have invaded nearly every corner of the country.”
About Carl Nettleton
Carl Nettleton is an award-winning writer, speaker, thought partner, facilitator, and subject-matter expert regarding water, climate, sustainability, the ocean, and binational U.S.-Mexico border affairs. Nettleton Strategies, the consultancy he founded in 2007, is a trusted source of analysis and advice on issues at the forefront of public policy, business, and the environment. He helps people and organizations to think strategically about their options for change. He is also the founder of OpenOceans Global, a nonprofit addressing ocean plastic in a new way.